BOOKBREAKER AI

Every pick.
Every result.
Nothing deleted.

We simulate every game 25,000 times against the sharpest betting markets and post where the sportsbooks look wrong. Every pick is logged and fingerprinted the moment it's posted, then graded here, wins and losses.

Pick log

How it works

Start sharp

Every game begins from the sharpest betting market, with the bookmaker's margin removed. Closing lines are the best public predictor of results, so we build on them instead of guessing.

Add what matters

Weather, injuries and late news the market may not have fully priced. Every adjustment is backtested; the ones that didn't help were cut.

Simulate 25,000 times

Each game is played out possession by possession, 25,000 times. Every probability we publish is simply how often it happened in those games.

Compare and log

We compare the results with sportsbook prices and post only where the gap is real. Every pick is logged with its timestamp, result and closing-line value.

Why closing-line value? Anyone can get lucky over a weekend. Consistently getting a better price than where the market closes is the clearest sign of a real edge, so it's the number we publish next to every win and loss.
What we don't claim. No locks, no guarantees. Some weeks the honest answer is "no bet," and we'll say so. Parlays and longshots lose most of the time by design. Size accordingly.
Fingerprints. Each pick carries a SHA-256 fingerprint created when it was posted. If a pick were ever edited, its fingerprint would no longer match.